As most of you guys know that this crash was predicted by me in April 2019 itself and just before this crash I gave a warning about it in December and predicted that the market will crash after in or after February and that’s what happened. This was not rocket science and neither am I a commerce graduate or any degree holder. I’m just a common man like you who learned most of the things by myself and having a very strong belief that everything is psychology and a book related to the same is on the way as well.
Anyways coming to the point. My Instagram, Whatsapp, and Facebook are filled with the question are you now bullish on the market? Have the market started to reverse yet?
My answer- No, I’m not yet bullish on the market yet! Although I’d recommend you to accumulate at this time in parts I still believe that the market has not yet seen the bottom. Let me explain it to you briefly with Technical and Fundamental reasons (although I’m still going to keep most of my cards unturned)
1D time frame– There is a long term trendline support which is yellow in color (now resistance) which was broken recently on this timeframe and later on Thursday you can see this candle touched this resistance and on Friday Nifty failed to break the resistance making it not so good for Nifty 50. I’m not saying it will not break this resistance it might or might not but I’m not bullish on this breakout! You can see both of them in the screenshots below!
1W time frame– As you can see the resistance (yellow in color) which is considered to be a very strong resistance was not broken by this 1W candle and the stock is yet to cross this level on this important resistance. Now if someone says that this candlestick is Piercing line candlestick then you might have to think twice because this candle didn’t follow the main condition for the formation of this so a reversal again remains unlikely in my view.
Although I’m not an expert in this field and I’d rather say I’m good with it and nothing more than that I’ll still try to keep a few things in front of you. The biggest indicator for me is Nifty PE (combined with Technical Analysis) here.
As you can see Nifty PE chart below where you can see whenever it reaches above 25 it starts to go down because markets reacted the same way. Right now it is @19.5 which is not an entry-level for me. I’ve already said to my students that I’ll be entering full when PE reaches between 10-12 or 13 for the long term. I know you guys want to know more about NIFTY PE so I’m gonna give a best-explained link to another blog or Quora answer which I don’t want to copy-paste and give the writer his full credit. Scroll down and you’ll get the link
There are obviously more things to this like Macro and Micro economic factors which will be affected in the coming time period and I believe Corona thing just acted as a catalyst to this crash and this crash was bound to happen because of the weaker economy. This thing will have a very long impact and the bloodbath is still remaining.
Disclaimer– This is just my personal view and I want you guys to consult your financial advisor before entering and exiting. As I’m yet not a SEBI registered advisor or analyst!
© 2020 Tornado Bulls